Aug. 6, 2019
Black Blogger Looking At The Most Recent Poll
Looking at a snapshot view of the current race for the Presidential Democratic nomination. It seems that Kamala Harris and Corey Booker's campaigns are languishing. Corey Booker is very close to being irrelevant with 2% of the support nationally. While over the past month Kamala Harris's campaign has lost 13% points in national support. The debates have actually been devastating to Harris's campaign.
In today's poll results:
Biden gets 47 percent of black Democrats, with 16 percent for Sanders, 8 percent for Warren and 1 percent for Harris;
Women Democrats go 31 percent for Biden, 24 percent for Warren, 10 percent for Sanders and 7 percent for Harris;
Very liberal Democrats go 40 percent for Warren, 20 percent for Sanders, 19 percent for Biden and 7 percent for Harris;
Somewhat liberal Democrats go 28 percent for Biden, 20 percent for Warren, 14 percent for Sanders and 10 percent for Harris;
Moderate/conservative Democrats go 43 percent for Biden, 11 percent for Warren, 9 percent for Sanders, and 4 percent each for Harris and South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg.
Corey Booker doesn't even register amongst black Democratic voters and Kamala Harris is only registering at 1% of black Democrats. It seems that the fight for the nomination will go down to Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren right now. With Bernie Sanders fighting for the third position. None of the non-traditional candidates except for Mayor Pete Buttigieg, who is registering at 4% with moderate/conservative Democrats, and 5% nationally are even registering above 1%. The leader in the clubhouse at 1% is Andrew Yang.
As it stands now the race to Iowa is a 3 candidate race Biden, Warren, and Sanders with Kamala Harris trailing those three candidates and losing ground fast. It seems that Kamala Harris's "I Was One Of Them" didn't help her because she lost appreciable ground since that statement. The last debate saw Kamala Harris' worst performance and the dip in her support is evidence of that fact. Corey Booker who some newsies felt did well in Detroit's debate showed a slight gain. It seems that Booker's campaign simply cannot gain national traction.
If either Booker or Harris doesn't make remarkable gains in the upcoming September 12,13 2019 debates in the friendly territory of an HBCU, Texas Southern University. It could mean that one or the other, or possibly both Harris and Booker will be positioning for a cabinet position in the upcoming administration.
The funny thing about polls is that they can change in a heartbeat when some cataclysmic event can erase a leaders position, or make an underdog the favorite. Yet Harris and Booker have to climb over multiple candidates in order to reach the favorite's slot. If they cannot even get the support of the black Democratic voters than it's going to be difficult to get the essential financial support to run a national campaign. Corey Booker is in the most tenuous position because the New Jersey Primary is so late in the campaign season. At least Harris has an early shot to win a significant number of California delegates.
However, if this poll from Quinnipiac University National Poll is correct both Harris and Booker have work to do with the black Democratic voters. Also, 14 Democratic candidates have less than 1% national support which means that the next debate at Texas Southern should have fewer contestants.
This is my Tuesday snapshot of the current Democratic campaign for President. It's interesting. My read is that neither Harris or Booker have shown the "it factor" or the "issue-factor" to be strong contenders, but hey, it's only August 2019. The Iowa Caucus starts the fun on Monday, February 3, 2020.